Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at Ascent Boston
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 81 | 43-34-4 | 55.6% | 55.3% | 53.2% | +1.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 14 | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 16 | 11-4-1 | 71.9% | 67.5% | 62.4% | +5.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 14 | 9-4-1 | 67.9% | 63.9% | 56.0% | +2.5 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 14 | 8-4-2 | 64.3% | 61.1% | 64.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 9 | 6-3-0 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 63.7% | +6.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.2% | 9 | 6-3-0 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 62.3% | +5.7 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 9 | 7-1-1 | 83.3% | 73.1% | 67.9% | +8.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.6% | -3.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 30.8% | -12.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 61.5% | +6.6 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 47.3% | -1.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.9% | -6.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 79.8% | +17.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 9 | 0-9-0 | 0.0% | 15.4% | 10.6% | -18.2 |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.3 |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.6% | -9.0 |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 52.7% | +1.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 23.4% | -25.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.7% | -6.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 16 from this event
The 16 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Heavenly Guide, Evercurrent Raider, Sadi, Blood Harvester. Losers more often ran: Resolute Stand, Fast Cure, Turbo Charge.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Juggle Knives | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Art of War | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |